Two races into F1’s new era, qualifying data reveals a clear split between teams making rapid progress and those losing ground
The 2026 Formula 1 season is only two races old, but qualifying data from Australia and China already paints a revealing picture of which teams are adapting fastest to the sport’s radical new regulations — and which are struggling to keep pace with Mercedes’ early dominance.
By comparing each team’s best qualifier gap to pole position across both events, a striking pattern emerges: nine of the eleven teams got closer to the front between Melbourne and Shanghai, but the rate of improvement varies wildly — and two teams actually went backwards.
Alpine: the biggest mover on the grid
No team made a bigger step forward than Alpine. Pierre Gasly qualified nearly two seconds off George Russell’s pole time in Australia (+1.983s), a deeply disappointing result for the Enstone-based team. Just one week later in China, Gasly slashed that deficit to just 0.809s, comfortably reaching Q3 and qualifying seventh.
That improvement of 1.174 seconds is by far the largest swing on the grid. Whether it reflects a genuine car upgrade, a circuit more suited to Alpine’s characteristics, or simply a better understanding of the new regulations remains to be seen. The Japanese Grand Prix this weekend at Suzuka should provide the third data point needed to establish a trend.
Cadillac and the midfield movers
Cadillac — the newest team on the grid — also showed significant improvement, cutting 0.949s from their gap to pole. However, context matters: they remain over three seconds off the pace, and the “improvement” partly reflects a change in which driver led the team (Perez in Australia, Bottas in China).
Haas (-0.565s), Aston Martin (-0.546s), and Audi (-0.473s) all made solid gains in the midfield, suggesting these teams are on an upward trajectory as they learn the new cars. Aston Martin’s gap still sits close to three seconds, raising questions about whether Adrian Newey’s AMR26 chassis can unlock more performance.
Ferrari closes in on Mercedes
Among the frontrunners, Ferrari made the most impressive leap. The Scuderia’s best qualifier went from 0.809s off pole in Melbourne (Leclerc) to just 0.351s in Shanghai (Hamilton), an improvement of 0.458s that put both drivers on the second row.
McLaren showed a similar trend, cutting their deficit from 0.862s to 0.486s (-0.376s), with Oscar Piastri leading the charge in both sessions. The gap between the top three teams is clearly narrowing, setting up a potential three-way fight as the season develops.
Mercedes: dominant, but the target is shrinking
Mercedes took pole at both events — Russell in Australia, Antonelli in China — making them the clear benchmark so far. But the data shows their advantage is eroding. Ferrari went from being 0.8s away to 0.35s. McLaren went from 0.86s to 0.49s. The Silver Arrows’ qualifying edge has roughly halved in a single race.
Red Bull and Racing Bulls: the Ford-powered outliers
The most concerning trend belongs to Red Bull and Racing Bulls — the only two teams running Ford-Red Bull Powertrains engines, and the only two teams that moved further away from pole between Australia and China.
Red Bull’s gap grew by 0.153s. In fairness, Max Verstappen crashed out without setting a time in Melbourne, so the Australian benchmark came from rookie Isack Hadjar. But even with Verstappen back in China, the four-time champion could only manage eighth — 0.938s off pole. That’s worse than Hadjar’s 0.785s deficit in Australia. Something is clearly not working.
Racing Bulls drifted by 0.165s, with Liam Lawson going from 1.476s off in Australia to 1.641s off in China. The common thread — the Ford power unit — will inevitably come under scrutiny if this trend continues at Suzuka.
What the data tells us
Two races is a small sample size, and circuit characteristics play a significant role. But the direction is clear: the grid is compressing toward Mercedes, and the teams making the biggest gains are those who struggled most in Melbourne. The exception is the Ford-powered pair, who appear to be swimming against the tide.
Suzuka this weekend offers the critical third data point. If Alpine’s surge holds, if Ferrari keeps closing, and if Red Bull keeps sliding, the early narrative of F1 2026 will be firmly established: Mercedes leads, the field is catching up — and Red Bull’s new power unit has a problem.
Gap to pole is measured as the difference between each team’s fastest qualifier and the pole time in each qualifying session. For Australia, Verstappen (Red Bull), Sainz (Williams), and Stroll (Aston Martin) did not set qualifying times due to incidents — the teammate’s gap was used instead.